Record high (歷史性高峰) fears (恐慌) in July's inflation level

Record high (歷史性高峰) fears (恐慌) in July's inflation level


Economists expect China's consumer price index (note 1) for July - due out today - to hit a record high of 6.5 percent from a year back.

They also fear further rises are in store (note 2) for the index this year.

This is contrary (相反) to some official forecasts that point to a fall in consumer prices during July.

If readings for a 6.5 percent rise in July are on the mark (note 3), Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, told the Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post, then it would follow that the CPI "might not have reached its peak (頂點) this year."

Economists Shirla Sum at Goldman Sachs and Sun Chi at Nomura are among those expecting the CPI to rise to 6.5 percent.

"Although food prices moderated (和緩) in the last 10 days of July, rising prices earlier last month still drove up (刺激) inflation," said Sun. Yet Xinhua News Agency said last week that the index for July was likely to up (note 4) by 6.3 percent.

As it is, the People's Bank of China is being tipped (估計) to increase interest rates one more time this year, and action is expected by some people as soon as tomorrow.

While that may be just too soon, Lu sees rates hiked (增加) before month's end, while the reserve requirement ratio for banks will be unchanged.

But Sun at Nomura said the possibility of a rate rise is slim (note 5) given market volatility amid the US debt re-rating. "China might be cautious about the gloomy global market, and the cycle of rate hikes may have ended," noted Sun.

The central bank has raised rates three times this year, taking the one-year benchmark (note 6) deposit rate to 3.5 percent and the one-year loan rate to 6.56 percent.

From good to better English:

(note 1) consumer price index=消費物價指數，簡稱cpi或inflation rate (通脹率)。

(note 2) in store= 準備出台 (In readiness, in preparation for future use)。Store(動辭)=貯藏，貯存。I don't know what the future has in store for us, Victor tells Mo Mo= Victor 告訴Mo Mo他不曉得將來他們究竟會怎麼樣。lay in stores for= 為某目的準備著。

(note 3) on the mark=準確。on the mark 的相反是off the mark (Inaccurate, wrong)。例句: Julian’s answers on the test were just wide of the mark= Julian考試的答案錯得很厲害。

(note 4) up (動辭)=上升。She was already up.=她已經起床了。stay up all night=通夜未睡。From $50 up =從50元起。Start up the engine=把機器開動起來。

(note 5) slim=機會微弱。Slim也解做無價值的；不充實的。a slim excuse=理由不充分的藉口。 very slim chances of success=成功的希望很渺茫。The chance for Victor to win a Pulitzer Prize in journalism is slim= Victor取得普立支獎的機會很渺茫。

(note 6) benchmark=標準, 指標性的 (a standard, norm, or yardstick)。Benchmark的同義詞還有criterion, gauge, mark, measure, standard。

Victor’s View: If inflation on the mainland goes up, it will cascade into prices of products shipped to Hong Kong. That will hurt the livelihood of many citizens. We should try our best to keep inflation from running away.

(Victor Fung Keung, director of HK Baptist University’s M.A. in international journalism program, has published 4 books on English-enhancement [the latest, titled <<學會演說、改變你的人生>>, was published on July 18] and plans to write 6 more by the end of 2012. Write to him: deanfungenglish@gmail.com)